Severe Weather: Maybe, Maybe Not

Severe weather has once again been in the news as violent tornadoes have left destruction in several Midwestern communities.  Unfortunately, the threat for severe weather is back in the forecast as another powerful storm system is expected to sweep across the country.  While the worst of the weather will be to our north and east (see the Storm Prediction Center's Outlook for today), the Delta is still under the gun for some nasty weather.....or maybe not!  The caveat in this forecast will be where the storms intially develop.  To keep it simple, severe thunderstorms require warm, moist air accompanied by strong wind shear.  Basically, they need A LOT of energy.  As this energy builds up, storms form in response.  Think of the atmosphere as a pot of boiling water, if you put a lid on it, steam will build up inside the pot.  Over time, enough pressure will build causing the lid to blow off, spilling water everywhere!  The "lid" in the atmosphere must also blow off for severe thunderstorms to develop. Meteorologists refer to this as a "capping inversion."  This feature can make or break a forecast.  Now tomorrow, the energy may not build up quick enough for storms to develop in the Delta; especially if the cold front moves through at a faster clip.  For example, check out the differences in these two model runs from yesterday at noon; the first is faster, while the second is slower.  Both models indicate the total rainfall accumulation over 3 hours.

The GFS model at 3pm Friday

The NAM model at 6pm Friday

 If the GFS is correct, storms will develop east and south of the Delta.  If the NAM is correct, storms will fire over the central Delta.  Right now, I personally believe the storms will initiate east and southwest of the River (more in alignment with the GFS model), so communities from Greenville, to Cleveland and Clarksdale may actually miss out on the severe weather, whereas areas south and east of Greenville may experience a few stronger storms.  This would include Indianola, Greenwood, Grenada, and Yazoo City.
Stay tuned to WXVT throughout the day as we will keep you updated on the complex forecast!